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📈 Economy
January 05, 2026

What strategies can be implemented to strengthen the U.S. economy in the face of future challenges?

The U.S. economy was beaten and battered in 2025, and powered ahead despite it all. The big picture: The question for 2026 is whether the underlying sources of weakness that are already evident will broaden out into something that threatens to undermine its overall resilience. Threat level: Beneath buoyant growth in GDP and asset prices are serious worries. The labor market is looking softer by the month.Elevated inflation is pinching family budgets. And fears are rising that the AI-fueled boom could leave ordinary workers worse off. The big picture: Those pain points have already caused public opinion on the economy to turn sharply negative. At the same time, one lesson of 2025 is that the U.S. economy is awfully adaptable and can withstand more challenges than you might expect. Zoom in: In April, President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs sent the stock market swooning and economists upgrading their recession odds. It wasn't the only sign of trouble. Job growth came to a near-halt over the summer. Deportations and restrictionist immigration are part of the story, along with the aging of the native-born workforce. But part of it is that companies are trying to get leaner.Inflation, meanwhile, has become the fire that will not be fully doused. While the sky-high inflation of 2022 is a thing of the past, inflation has been above the Federal Reserve's target 2% target every single month since March 2021. Affordability is top of mind in public opinion. Reality check: It's important to remember, though, that the $30 trillion U.S. economy, for all its flaws, can weather a lot, at least at the macro level. It is, as RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas puts it, a "dynamic and resilient beast."

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🌍 Geopolitics
January 05, 2026

What policies should be considered to address the implications of China's intentions toward Taiwan by 2027?

China's massive live-fire military exercises this week in the air and seas around Taiwan come as the calendar flips one year closer to a date that looms larger for Pentagon planners than almost any other. Why it matters: The U.S. military has been operating for the past five years under the assumption that the Chinese military is preparing to take Taiwan by force as soon as 2027. Tick, tock. Tick, tock. The big picture: The U.S. has built out bases in the Pacific, poured billions into domestic semiconductor manufacturing, shipped arms to Taipei and shuffled its own military assets — all with an eye on a potential war over the self-governing island. But the sense of urgency has not always matched the tightening timeline — now down to just a single year. Driving the news: In a sign that could be changing, the Trump administration announced the largest-ever arms sale ($11.1 billion) for Taiwan this month. Then on Monday, Beijing launched drills that its military described as a "stern warning" to separatists. They involve simulated aerial strikes, live-fire exercises by the navy, and other elements designed to emphasize China's ability to surround and conquer the island.While the exercises were likely pre-planned, the arms deal announcement infuriated Beijing. A Chinese embassy spokesperson told Axios such moves "risk turning Taiwan into a powder keg" and accele

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