OpenAI's ChatGPT previewed the future with its chatbot release in late 2022. Anthropic's latest Claude AI takes you there. Why it matters: Claude Opus 4.5 — which powers Anthropic's agent tools, Claude Code for developers and the newly released Cowork — lets anyone quickly turn an idea into a functioning program or app, using plain English. In eight hours, Jim built four apps on his phone — all fully functioning, all beautifully designed and intuitive. "My mind is officially blown in a way it never has been before," he texted Mike on Thursday. We've been building products and companies for 20 years. Any of those apps would have taken multiple people and many weeks to hit this level of design and usability.Jim wanted to create a test to screen for people who'll excel at using AI. He built a 30-question quiz on his phone in two hours, then easily added five-minute training courses for each skill set. Claude shows in vivid and unforgettable ways how easily AI will perform complex human tasks instantly — and forever change work, jobs and chores. Google, OpenAI, xAI and other competitors are racing to match and exceed Claude. You can assume there'll be leapfrogging advancements in this hyper-competitive race.Yes, these AI tools remain imperfect. But when you experiment with them, you'll see they're advancing lightning-fast. The big picture: 2026 seems increasingly likely to be the year AI will go from fascinating aspiration to actual widespread application. Chris Lehane, OpenAI's chief global affairs officer, tells us: "The whole waterline in capabilities has risen — everyone who has a boat, whether a big boat or a smaller boat, is rising on this rising tide. The capabilities are moving faster, and we as a society need to move faster if we want as many people as possible to have a fair chance of getting their fair piece of the intelligence age." Inside Jim's test run: I used Claude Opus 4.5, Anthropic's flagship AI, accessed through a $20/month Claude Pro subscription. H
The FBI searched the home and devices of Washington Post reporter Hannah Natanson, who covers the Trump administration's reshaping of the federal government, a Post spokesperson confirmed to Axios. Why it matters: Searching a journalist's home is an extraordinary step — even past administrations that aggressively pursued leak investigations stopped short of raiding reporters' homes. "While we won't know the government's arguments about overcoming these very steep hurdles until the affidavit is made public, this is a tremendous escalation in the administration's intrusions into the independence of the press," Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press president Bruce D. Brown said in response to Wednesday's news."The Justice Department should explain publicly why it believes this search was necessary and legally permissible, and Congress and the courts should scrutinize that explanation carefully," said Jameel Jaffer, executive director of the Knight First Amendment Institute. Zoom in: According to the Washington Post, Natanson was at her Virginia home when agents arrived. The FBI warrant said the search was part of an investigation into a Maryland system administrator accused of "accessing and taking home classified intelligence reports," per the affidavit cited by the Post. A spokesperson confirmed the Post is reviewing and monitoring the situation. Between the lines: Natanson is part of a team that covers Trump's overhaul of the federal workforce. She previously covered education and won a Peabody in 2024 for her work. In 2022, she was part of a team of Post journalists awarded a Pulitzer Prize for coverage of the Jan. 6 insurrection. Zoom out: The move signals a dramatic escalation in the Trump administration's war on leaks. Attorney General Pam Bondi said the Justice Department would resume seizing reporters' phone records to find leakers.In April, Bondi rescinded former Attorney General Merrick Garland's policy restricting federal prosecutors from forcing jou
Data: United Health Foundation. Cartogram: Axios Visuals A state-by-state health report card, out today from the United Health Foundation, finds an array of encouraging signs for America: Rates for premature death, drug deaths, firearm deaths and homicides all fell. Rates of cancer screenings, physical activity and volunteerism all increased. But rates of e-cigarette use and multiple chronic conditions increased. Homelessness and unemployment — socioeconomic factors that help determine the nation's health — rose. Why it matters: America's Health Rankings — from the United Health Foundation, established by UnitedHealth Group — synthesize 99 measures of health and well-being, drawn from 31 data sources, to produce a "comprehensive portrait of health at both the national and state levels." State of play: The five healthiest states, based on social and economic factors, physical environment, clinical care, behaviors and health outcomes: 1. New Hampshire2. Massachusetts3. Vermont4. Connecticut5. Utah The least healthy states: 46. West Virginia47. Alabama48. Mississippi49. Arkansas50. Louisiana Go deeper: Read the full report
Data: The Washington Post; Note: County level data unavailable for Delaware, Mississippi, Montana, New Hampshire, West Virginia and Wyoming; Map: Jacque Schrag/Axios The battle against infectious diseases like the flu and measles has taken a hit with sinking vaccination rates for children in many parts of the U.S., per new data collected and analyzed by the Washington Post. The big picture: Vaccination rates for school-age children have plunged in hundreds of counties as chaos reigns over vaccination schedules, setting the stage for a potentially grim 2026. The new figures offer stark evidence of the extent of the backlash that began during the pandemic against public health mandates. Catch up quick: Plunging vaccination rates contributed to a spike in measles cases, and set the U.S. up to to lose its coveted <a href="
Ian Bremmer — president and founder of Eurasia Group, a top global political-risk research and consulting firm — says the top geopolitical risk for 2026 is the "U.S. Political Revolution," with President Trump "so committed to and so capable of changing the political system." Why it matters: Eurasia Group's annual "Top Risks" report — out Monday, 48 hours after Trump shook the world by snatching Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro — isolates the "biggest threats to the trajectories of nations, industries and institutions," to help leaders and investors prepare for the year. "The United States is itself unwinding its own global order," says Bremmer, also president and founder of GZERO Media. "The world's most powerful country is in the throes of a political revolution. In our lifetimes, we have never witnessed an American president so committed to and so capable of changing the political system and, accordingly, the United States' role in the world." Other risks: The report says Europe's center is faltering . water is being weaponized as a resource for countries and businesses . and U.S. attacks on clean energy endanger the nation's AI lead, giving China a potential advantage in post-carbon energy production. That's all happening amid the AI boom, which "represents the greatest opportunity and danger humanity has ever created, and with next to no governance, alignment, or coordination," write Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan, Eurasia Group's chair. The rest of the Top 10: 2. Overpowered (electric stack) . 3. Donroe Doctrine . 4. Europe under siege . 5. Russia's second front (hybrid war between Russia and NATO) . 6. State capitalism with American characteristics ("the most economically interventionist administration since the New Deal"). 7. China's deflation trap . 8. AI eats its users . 9. Zombie USMCA (U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement) . and 10. The water weapon (a tool for non-state actors exploiting state weakness. What was a humanitarian crisis is becoming a national security threat
The U.S. economy was beaten and battered in 2025, and powered ahead despite it all. The big picture: The question for 2026 is whether the underlying sources of weakness that are already evident will broaden out into something that threatens to undermine its overall resilience. Threat level: Beneath buoyant growth in GDP and asset prices are serious worries. The labor market is looking softer by the month.Elevated inflation is pinching family budgets. And fears are rising that the AI-fueled boom could leave ordinary workers worse off. The big picture: Those pain points have already caused public opinion on the economy to turn sharply negative. At the same time, one lesson of 2025 is that the U.S. economy is awfully adaptable and can withstand more challenges than you might expect. Zoom in: In April, President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs sent the stock market swooning and economists upgrading their recession odds. It wasn't the only sign of trouble. Job growth came to a near-halt over the summer. Deportations and restrictionist immigration are part of the story, along with the aging of the native-born workforce. But part of it is that companies are trying to get leaner.Inflation, meanwhile, has become the fire that will not be fully doused. While the sky-high inflation of 2022 is a thing of the past, inflation has been above the Federal Reserve's target 2% target every single month since March 2021. Affordability is top of mind in public opinion. Reality check: It's important to remember, though, that the $30 trillion U.S. economy, for all its flaws, can weather a lot, at least at the macro level. It is, as RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas puts it, a "dynamic and resilient beast."
China's massive live-fire military exercises this week in the air and seas around Taiwan come as the calendar flips one year closer to a date that looms larger for Pentagon planners than almost any other. Why it matters: The U.S. military has been operating for the past five years under the assumption that the Chinese military is preparing to take Taiwan by force as soon as 2027. Tick, tock. Tick, tock. The big picture: The U.S. has built out bases in the Pacific, poured billions into domestic semiconductor manufacturing, shipped arms to Taipei and shuffled its own military assets — all with an eye on a potential war over the self-governing island. But the sense of urgency has not always matched the tightening timeline — now down to just a single year. Driving the news: In a sign that could be changing, the Trump administration announced the largest-ever arms sale ($11.1 billion) for Taiwan this month. Then on Monday, Beijing launched drills that its military described as a "stern warning" to separatists. They involve simulated aerial strikes, live-fire exercises by the navy, and other elements designed to emphasize China's ability to surround and conquer the island.While the exercises were likely pre-planned, the arms deal announcement infuriated Beijing. A Chinese embassy spokesperson told Axios such moves "risk turning Taiwan into a powder keg" and accele
New tax brackets, higher standard deductions and expanded credits are now in effect — changes that could boost paychecks and lower income taxes for many Americans in 2026 and beyond. Why it matters: The IRS updates reflect annual inflation adjustments and sweeping tax changes signed into law last summer in the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), making several provisions from the 2017 tax overhaul permanent. The biggest changes include new tax breaks for seniors and tipped workers, as well as the extension of tax provisions from President Trump's first term. Catch up fast: Tax breaks created by last year's law — including changes affecting Social Security income and the elimination of federal income tax on tips — can be claimed on tax returns filed in 2026. The IRS's new 2026 tax brackets are starting to affect paychecks now and will apply to returns filed in 2027.2026 income tax brackets The big picture: Each year, the Internal Revenue Service adjusts more than 60 tax provisions to prevent "bracket creep," which happens when inflation pushes workers into higher tax br
The AI model maker race will continue in 2026, along with more agents and a growing pressure on companies to prove AI can pay off in the real world, experts tell Axios. Why it matters: AI may be both the current and next big thing, but success increasingly hinges less on being the "best" model and more on timing. The big picture: Rapid progress by OpenAI, Anthropic, Google and others drove frequent leapfrogging — and fierce price competition — in 2025. That dynamic is expected to intensify next year and beyond. "We're just gonna be in this constant race," Box CEO Aaron Levie told Axios. Reality check: There are important, often-overlooked steps between the arrival of more powerful algorithms and a boost in productivity. The winners must understand when a technology is mature enough to deploy and how to integrate it into messy, human-run organizations without burning money or credibility."Good AI won't need long prompts. The more you have to explain, the worse the product is." Winston Weinberg, CEO and co-founder of Harvey, tells Axios. "The best systems will already know the context." "A jump in model capability does not instantly mean that task gets automated in the economy," Le