The Daily Brief

The recent missile strikes on Kyiv are a stark reminder of the ongoing conflict that has engulfed Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion began on 24 February 2022. This invasion followed years of escalating tensions, rooted in Ukraine's pivot towards the West and its aspirations to join NATO and the European Union, which Russia perceives as a direct threat to its sphere of influence. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the subsequent conflict in Eastern Ukraine set the stage for the current war, with Russia employing a mix of conventional military force and hybrid tactics, including disinformation campaigns and cyber warfare. The pattern of missile strikes targeting civilian infrastructure has been a consistent feature of the conflict, particularly during winter months when energy resources are critical for survival. The implications of these attacks extend beyond Ukraine’s borders, particularly affecting European energy markets. As Kyiv braces for potential blackouts, the ripple effects could lead to increased energy prices across Europe, reminiscent of the 2022 energy crisis when the continent faced soaring costs due to supply disruptions linked to the war. This situation may further strain European economies, which are already grappling with inflation and the aftershocks of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, the attacks may galvanise international support for Ukraine, as Western nations reassess their military and humanitarian aid commitments in light of Russia's aggressive tactics. The potential for a renewed influx of refugees fleeing the conflict could also pose challenges for neighbouring countries and the EU as a whole. Key players in this ongoing conflict include the Ukrainian government, led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has become a symbol of resistance and resilience.