The Daily Brief

The current escalation between the United States and Iran can be traced back to a long history of tension that has defined their relationship since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. This pivotal moment saw the overthrow of the US-backed Shah and the establishment of the Islamic Republic, which fundamentally altered the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. Over the decades, various incidents have exacerbated tensions, including the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), where the US provided support to Iraq, and the more recent nuclear negotiations that began in earnest in the early 2000s. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) aimed to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief, but the US withdrawal from the agreement in 2018 under President Trump reignited hostilities. The downing of US drones and military assets has become a recurring theme, with each incident further complicating diplomatic efforts. The broader implications of the ongoing military conflict are significant, particularly for global oil markets and regional stability. Iran's strategic position in the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world's oil passes, makes any military escalation a potential trigger for soaring oil prices. Historical precedents, such as the Gulf War in 1990, illustrate how military actions in the region can lead to dramatic increases in oil prices, which could ripple through global economies already grappling with post-pandemic recovery. Additionally, the conflict could destabilise neighbouring countries, leading to a humanitarian crisis and potential refugee flows, further straining international relations and resources. Key players in this situation include the US government, led by President Donald Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who have framed their military actions as necessary for national security.