The Daily Brief

The current escalation between the United States and Iran can be traced back to a series of complex interactions and conflicts that have developed over decades. The roots of this tension date back to the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which saw the overthrow of the US-backed Shah and the establishment of the Islamic Republic. Since then, the US has viewed Iran as a significant adversary in the Middle East, particularly following Iran's support for militant groups like Hezbollah and its involvement in various regional conflicts. The situation intensified after the US withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, leading to a series of tit-for-tat attacks, including the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in January 2020. The recent attacks on US forces in Jordan represent a continuation of this cycle of violence, exacerbated by the breakdown of an interim ceasefire agreement that had been in place for only a month prior to the current strikes. The implications of the ongoing military actions are profound and multifaceted. Firstly, the strikes could severely disrupt oil supply chains in the region, as Iran is a key player in global energy markets. Any significant escalation could lead to increased oil prices, affecting economies worldwide, particularly those heavily reliant on oil imports. Additionally, the conflict could destabilise neighbouring countries, such as Iraq and Syria, where Iranian influence is strong. The potential for a broader regional conflict looms large, reminiscent of the Iraq War's aftermath, which saw a power vacuum and the rise of extremist groups. Furthermore, the suspension of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) by Iran complicates diplomatic efforts, as it eliminates a framework for dialogue that could have mitigated tensions.