The Weekly Brief

The current tensions between the United States and Iran can be traced back to a series of escalating conflicts and diplomatic failures over the past two decades. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, was a significant diplomatic achievement aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief. However, the situation deteriorated dramatically after the United States withdrew from the agreement in May 2018 under President Trump, reinstating severe economic sanctions that crippled Iran's economy. This withdrawal marked a pivotal moment, leading to increased hostility and a series of military confrontations, including the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in January 2020. The ongoing conflict that began in early 2026, following a series of military skirmishes and retaliatory strikes, has now entered its tenth week, with both sides entrenched in their positions. The implications of the current standoff extend beyond the immediate military conflict. The rising energy prices, which have surged due to fears of supply disruptions from the Middle East, reflect the interconnectedness of global markets and geopolitical stability. As of May 2026, oil prices have risen by approximately 30% since the conflict began, impacting economies worldwide, particularly those heavily reliant on energy imports. Additionally, the conflict has ramifications for regional stability, with countries like Israel and Saudi Arabia closely monitoring the situation, as they have historically viewed Iran as a significant threat. The potential for a broader regional war looms large, especially if military actions escalate further, which could draw in other nations and destabilise the already fragile geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.