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The Rise of the “Scenario,” a Trendy Way of Forecasting our Dystopian Future

Culture
United States
Gestart July 26, 2026

In “Biological War,” Annie Jacobsen imagines society collapsing from a man-made plague—part of a wave of such prophecies. But what do we miss when we try to predict the future?

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CLAIM Geplaatst door admin • Jul 26, 2026
Media representations of dystopian futures can desensitize society to real-world issues.

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CLAIM Geplaatst door admin • Jul 26, 2026
Whether or not scenarios accurately predict the future, we should evaluate forecasting methods by whether they improve actual decisions and preparedness.

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CLAIM Geplaatst door admin • Jul 26, 2026
Predicting dystopian futures can distract society from addressing current systemic issues.

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CLAIM Geplaatst door admin • Jul 26, 2026
Scenario planning should focus on a range of outcomes, including positive futures, not just dystopian ones.

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CLAIM Geplaatst door admin • Jul 26, 2026
Scenarios can help reveal blind spots in our assumptions, but only if they are stress-tested against empirical evidence and competing hypotheses.

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CLAIM Geplaatst door admin • Jul 26, 2026
Scenario-based forecasting like 'Biological War' prepares society for real threats by forcing us to think through cascading failures we would otherwise ignore.

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CLAIM Geplaatst door admin • Jul 26, 2026
Focusing on dystopian scenarios can lead to a sense of hopelessness that paralyzes action.

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CLAIM Geplaatst door admin • Jul 26, 2026
The scenario-writing industry should include more voices from communities most vulnerable to collapse—not just security professionals and affluent technologists.

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CLAIM Geplaatst door admin • Jul 26, 2026
Scenario forecasting is most valuable when it identifies neglected policy options and tests assumptions, rather than claiming to predict what will actually happen.

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CLAIM Geplaatst door admin • Jul 26, 2026
Forecasting dystopian scenarios should include diverse perspectives to avoid narrow narratives.

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