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đź‘Ą Society
February 18, 2026

The fertility asymptote?

From a recent paper by Sebastian Galiani and Raul A. Sosa: Fertility rates have fallen below replacement in most countries, fueling predictions of demographic collapse. We show these forecasts overlook a crucial fact: societies are not homogeneous. Using the Bisin–Verdier model of cultural transmission with endogenous fertility and direct socialization, calibrated to U.S. and global […] The post The fertility asymptote? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to k m. So you ar...

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🌍 Geopolitics
January 31, 2026

How the World Sees America, With Adam Tooze

The old world order is dying. What new world order — if any — is struggling to be born? I can’t think of a week when it felt clearer that an era was coming to an end. Whatever people thought America was, at least for a couple of decades, it’s something else now. The killing of Alex Pretti and the fact that it was recorded on video that plainly contradicted the Trump administration’s initial narrative made that clear. Mark Carney, the prime minister of Canada, also drove home that point when h...

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