The Daily Brief

The current situation between Ukraine and Russia can be traced back to the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, which marked the beginning of a prolonged conflict. This event was followed by the outbreak of war in Eastern Ukraine, where pro-Russian separatists declared independence, leading to significant military engagements. Previous attempts at peace negotiations, such as the Minsk agreements in 2014 and 2015, aimed to establish a ceasefire and a framework for resolving the conflict but ultimately failed to produce lasting peace. The ongoing war has seen various escalations, including the recent intensification of Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, which have exacerbated the humanitarian crisis and economic instability in the region. The US-imposed deadline for a resolution by June 2026 carries significant implications for European energy security and geopolitical stability. As the conflict continues, energy prices in Europe are likely to rise, impacting millions of consumers and businesses. The reliance on Russian gas has already prompted many European nations to seek alternative energy sources, and a prolonged conflict could accelerate this transition. Furthermore, the humanitarian impact of the war has led to increased refugee flows into neighbouring countries, straining resources and potentially destabilising regions such as Poland and the Baltic states. The economic repercussions could also extend to global markets, particularly in sectors reliant on energy and raw materials from the region.