The Daily Brief

The current military escalation involving Iran can be traced back to a series of events that have unfolded over the past few years, particularly since the United States' withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018. This withdrawal marked a significant turning point in US-Iran relations, leading to the re-imposition of economic sanctions on Iran and a subsequent increase in regional tensions. The assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in January 2020 further exacerbated these tensions, as it was perceived by Iran as an act of war. The recent conflict, which began with US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in February 2026, represents a culmination of these long-standing hostilities, with both sides engaging in increasingly aggressive rhetoric and military actions. The implications of this conflict extend far beyond the immediate region. As Iran retaliates with missile strikes, the potential for a broader regional conflict increases, which could destabilise the already volatile Middle East. Countries such as Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, which have been heavily influenced by Iranian interests, could see a spillover of violence. Additionally, the global economy is likely to feel the impact, particularly in the oil sector. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world's oil passes, is a critical chokepoint. Any disruption to shipping routes or oil production could lead to significant increases in global oil prices, affecting economies worldwide, particularly those heavily reliant on energy imports. Key players in this ongoing conflict include the United States, Iran, and Israel, each with their own strategic interests and objectives. The US, under President Donald Trump, is pursuing a military strategy aimed at crippling Iran's capabilities, while Iran is responding with threats of "crushing" retaliation.