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Yascha Mounk and Shashank Joshi also discuss Trump's war in the Middle East and the differences between the United States and Europe
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Shashank Joshi on Why Russia Won't Invade NATO—Yet
Yascha Mounk (United States) | Sep 23, 2026
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CLAIM
Posted by admin
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Sep 24, 2026
NATO expansion into Eastern Europe has been a stabilizing force that deterred Russian aggression and should continue as a signal of democratic commitment.
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CLAIM
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Sep 24, 2026
Russia will not invade NATO members in the near term because the military balance and nuclear deterrence make such an attack irrational for the Kremlin.
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CLAIM
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Sep 24, 2026
The United States' focus on the Middle East distracts from the threat posed by Russia to NATO.
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CLAIM
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Sep 24, 2026
The economic costs of invading NATO would outweigh any potential territorial gains for Russia.
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CLAIM
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Sep 24, 2026
Diplomatic channels with Russia should be prioritized to avoid misunderstandings that could lead to conflict.
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CLAIM
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Sep 24, 2026
Europe and the United States must align their strategic interests in both Eastern Europe and the Middle East, or risk being divided by adversaries.
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CLAIM
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Sep 24, 2026
Trump's foreign policy shifts have weakened NATO's collective resolve against Russian aggression.
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CLAIM
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Sep 24, 2026
The U.S. should prioritize avoiding simultaneous military commitments in Europe and the Middle East, as fighting a two-front war would strain American capacity.
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CLAIM
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Sep 24, 2026
Whether Russia invades NATO or not, all parties must operate from the principle that military security depends on clarity about red lines and consequences.
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CLAIM
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Sep 24, 2026
Russia's current focus on consolidating gains in Ukraine and the Middle East should not be mistaken for permanent restraint; long-term NATO expansion risks could provoke Russian escalation.
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