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Can AGI Rivals Hold Back?

Geopolitics

Global

Iniciado October 01, 2026

With this analysis, the authors identify the conditions under which restraint is feasible and sustainable, as well as show how these conditions shift as states come to believe that they are close to attaining artificial general intelligence

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Can AGI Rivals Hold Back?

RAND Corporation (United States) | Sep 30, 2026

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CLAIM Publicado por admin • Oct 01, 2026

Countries with advanced AI capabilities will struggle to restrain their development due to competitive pressures.

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CLAIM Publicado por admin • Oct 01, 2026

AGI development should prioritize ethical considerations over competitive advantages between nations.

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CLAIM Publicado por admin • Oct 01, 2026

Countries should invest more in AGI safety measures rather than in competitive research efforts.

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CLAIM Publicado por admin • Oct 01, 2026

Technological superiority in AGI will dictate which nations can afford to restrain their development.

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CLAIM Publicado por admin • Oct 01, 2026

Verification mechanisms for AGI restraint must be transparent and subject to independent audit, regardless of which countries design them.

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CLAIM Publicado por admin • Oct 01, 2026

Any attempt to hold back AGI development will ultimately fail due to the inherent race dynamics among nations.

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CLAIM Publicado por admin • Oct 01, 2026

Nations should adopt international agreements to limit the development of artificial general intelligence.

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CLAIM Publicado por admin • Oct 01, 2026

Public deliberation about the conditions for sustainable restraint must happen now, before technical breakthroughs narrow the political window for cooperation.

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CLAIM Publicado por admin • Oct 01, 2026

Nations that achieve AGI first will likely dominate global power structures, making restraint unrealistic.

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CLAIM Publicado por admin • Oct 01, 2026

Restraint agreements must include graduated tripwires that automatically adjust commitment levels as technical progress is measured, not rely on static timelines.

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