荷美兹海峡关闭可能如何影响全球贸易和经济?

The U.S. and Israel's war with Iran is likely to impact people around the world as tensions escalate around the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway on Iran's southern coast, where traffic has ground to a halt. Why it matters: Trade disruptions along this key waterway on Iran's southern coast that handles 25% of the world's maritime oil trade and 20% of liquefied natural gas shipments will likely produce a domino effect across the global economy. About 33% of the world's fertilizers, including sulfur and ammonia, travel through the strait, according to the trade analysis firm Kpler. • It's a key route for alumimum and sugar as well.Blocked access to the strait will likely impact the price of some products, including clothing, cookware, medical equipment, and more. State of play: The strait is "closed" and any vessel attempting to pass through the waterway would be set "ablaze," an Iran Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) commander said Monday. Driving the news: President Trump said on Truth Social on Tuesday that the U.S. will "immediately" offer "political risk insurance and guarantees" for energy tankers and other ships in the Gulf region, and that the Navy would escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if needed. The U.S. has been striking Iranian warships in order to reduce Iran's stronghold over the strait. What they're saying: "The scale of what is at stake cannot be overstated," Hakan Kaya, senior portfolio manager at investment management firm Neuberger Berman, said in a blog post this week. Oil companies can likely absorb a one- to two-week slowdown, he said."A full or near-full closure lasting a month or more would require demand destruction at levels that could push crude well into triple digits and European natural gas prices toward or above the crisis levels seen in 2022," Kaya added. Here's what to know: Gas prices Threat level: With access to oil restricted, oil prices and gasoline prices have spiked. Tom Kloza, an oil analyst working for Gulf Oil, told Axios