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How the Iranian Regime Breaks

Politics
Iran
Started January 22, 2026

Elite fracture will come gradually and then suddenly

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CLAIM Posted by will • Jan 22, 2026
The gradual elite fracture in Iran signals an inevitable collapse of the regime, offering a unique chance for democratic reform.
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CLAIM Posted by will • Jan 22, 2026
The idea that elite fractures will lead to regime change is overly optimistic and ignores the resilience of authoritarian structures.
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CLAIM Posted by will • Jan 22, 2026
While elite fractures can destabilize the regime, the outcome is uncertain and could lead to increased repression rather than reform.
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CLAIM Posted by will • Jan 22, 2026
The focus on elite fractures overlooks the role of grassroots movements, which are essential for any meaningful change in Iran.
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CLAIM Posted by will • Jan 22, 2026
International pressure must be increased to exploit the elite fractures in Iran, as external support can catalyze internal change.
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