What are the potential implications of international conflicts and elections on global governance and policy-making by 2026?
Une série de points d'inflexion attendent le monde. Voici notre point de vue sur ce qui pourrait se passer cette année
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Une série de points d'inflexion attendent le monde. Voici notre point de vue sur ce qui pourrait se passer cette année
The information war will be fought through chatbots
Ian Bremmer — president and founder of Eurasia Group, a top global political-risk research and consulting firm — says the top geopolitical risk for 2026 is the "U.S. Political Revolution," with President Trump "so committed to and so capable of changing the political system." Why it matters: Eurasia Group's annual "Top Risks" report — out Monday, 48 hours after Trump shook the world by snatching Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro — isolates the "biggest threats to the trajectories of nations, industries and institutions," to help leaders and investors prepare for the year. "The United States is itself unwinding its own global order," says Bremmer, also president and founder of GZERO Media. "The world's most powerful country is in the throes of a political revolution. In our lifetimes, we have never witnessed an American president so committed to and so capable of changing the political system and, accordingly, the United States' role in the world." Other risks: The report says Europe's center is faltering . water is being weaponized as a resource for countries and businesses . and U.S. attacks on clean energy endanger the nation's AI lead, giving China a potential advantage in post-carbon energy production. That's all happening amid the AI boom, which "represents the greatest opportunity and danger humanity has ever created, and with next to no governance, alignment, or coordination," write Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan, Eurasia Group's chair. The rest of the Top 10: 2. Overpowered (electric stack) . 3. Donroe Doctrine . 4. Europe under siege . 5. Russia's second front (hybrid war between Russia and NATO) . 6. State capitalism with American characteristics ("the most economically interventionist administration since the New Deal"). 7. China's deflation trap . 8. AI eats its users . 9. Zombie USMCA (U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement) . and 10. The water weapon (a tool for non-state actors exploiting state weakness. What was a humanitarian crisis is becoming a national security threat
Protests in Iran are intensifying due to the country's struggling economy, putting pressure on its theocracy
China's massive live-fire military exercises this week in the air and seas around Taiwan come as the calendar flips one year closer to a date that looms larger for Pentagon planners than almost any other. Why it matters: The U.S. military has been operating for the past five years under the assumption that the Chinese military is preparing to take Taiwan by force as soon as 2027. Tick, tock. Tick, tock. The big picture: The U.S. has built out bases in the Pacific, poured billions into domestic semiconductor manufacturing, shipped arms to Taipei and shuffled its own military assets — all with an eye on a potential war over the self-governing island. But the sense of urgency has not always matched the tightening timeline — now down to just a single year. Driving the news: In a sign that could be changing, the Trump administration announced the largest-ever arms sale ($11.1 billion) for Taiwan this month. Then on Monday, Beijing launched drills that its military described as a "stern warning" to separatists. They involve simulated aerial strikes, live-fire exercises by the navy, and other elements designed to emphasize China's ability to surround and conquer the island.While the exercises were likely pre-planned, the arms deal announcement infuriated Beijing. A Chinese embassy spokesperson told Axios such moves "risk turning Taiwan into a powder keg" and accele
Doubts over Trump’s claim US will ‘run’ Venezuela; girls aged 14 and 15 confirmed killed in Swiss bar fire
President Donald Trump warned the US is ‘“prepared to do a second wave, a much bigger wave’ than the first attack
Gambian President Adama Barrow confirmed that more than 100 survivors have been rescued from the vessel which overturned in the North Bank region
Editorial: Families are struggling to survive amid the devastation. Israel’s ban on international NGOs will worsen this disaster