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Geopolitics

What are the best ways for countries to help people affected by the conflict in the Middle East?

GENEVA, March 6 (Reuters) - The U.N. refugee agency said on Friday that nearly 100,000 people have been displaced within Lebanon and tens of thousands of Syrian refugees there have fled back over the border, calling the situation in the region a "major humanitarian emergency". Israel has issued large-scale evacuation orders for southern Lebanon and parts of Beirut amid hostilities with the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah since a U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran began on February 28

Global
Geopolitics

What are the challenges and effects of the ongoing situation in Iran on our region and policies?

US President Donald Trump expressed confidence in the US military campaign against Iran even as the duration of military operations remains uncertain. But former Secretary of State Antony Blinken says real change in Iran will require a sustained military focus in the Middle East that could wear down US weapons stockpiles. Mark MacCarley, retired Major General in the US Army and Managing Attorney, MacCarley and Rosen spoke to Bloomberg’s Horizons Middle East & Africa anchor Joumanna Bercetche on the likely duration and cost of such wars. (Source: Bloomberg)

United States
Geopolitics

What are the potential consequences for European countries if they support military actions in the conflict with Iran?

In an interview with FRANCE 24, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi said Tehran had "already informed the Europeans and everybody else that they should be careful not to be involved in this war of aggression against Iran". He warned that if any country "joins America and Israel in the aggression against Iran, they will be also legitimate targets for Iran's retaliation"

Global
Geopolitics

How might the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz affect trade and economies around the world?

The U.S. and Israel's war with Iran is likely to impact people around the world as tensions escalate around the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway on Iran's southern coast, where traffic has ground to a halt. Why it matters: Trade disruptions along this key waterway on Iran's southern coast that handles 25% of the world's maritime oil trade and 20% of liquefied natural gas shipments will likely produce a domino effect across the global economy. About 33% of the world's fertilizers, including sulfur and ammonia, travel through the strait, according to the trade analysis firm Kpler. • It's a key route for alumimum and sugar as well.Blocked access to the strait will likely impact the price of some products, including clothing, cookware, medical equipment, and more. State of play: The strait is "closed" and any vessel attempting to pass through the waterway would be set "ablaze," an Iran Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) commander said Monday. Driving the news: President Trump said on Truth Social on Tuesday that the U.S. will "immediately" offer "political risk insurance and guarantees" for energy tankers and other ships in the Gulf region, and that the Navy would escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if needed. The U.S. has been striking Iranian warships in order to reduce Iran's stronghold over the strait. What they're saying: "The scale of what is at stake cannot be overstated," Hakan Kaya, senior portfolio manager at investment management firm Neuberger Berman, said in a blog post this week. Oil companies can likely absorb a one- to two-week slowdown, he said."A full or near-full closure lasting a month or more would require demand destruction at levels that could push crude well into triple digits and European natural gas prices toward or above the crisis levels seen in 2022," Kaya added. Here's what to know: Gas prices Threat level: With access to oil restricted, oil prices and gasoline prices have spiked. Tom Kloza, an oil analyst working for Gulf Oil, told Axios

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