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Geopolitics

What are the possible benefits and risks of lifting oil sanctions on Iran for the U.S. and the world?

The White House is considering lifting sanctions on Iranian oil that's at sea to keep oil prices down, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday. Why it matters: The administration is pulling out all the stops โ€” even easing up an economic threat to its enemy in war โ€” to keep down oil prices. The latest: The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, spiked 10% in just the past 24 hours, driving increasing worries among investors. Brent is now around $111 per barrel โ€” nearly 60% higher than pre-war levels. Zoom in: "In the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil that's on the water," Bessent told Fox Business Thursday morning. He said that would make up about 140 million barrels โ€” about 10 days to two weeks of supply."In essence, we'd be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days, as we continue this campaign. So, we have lots of levers." The big picture: The White House has been able for the past few weeks to contain prices with various assurances and policies โ€” promising tanker escorts through the critical Strait of Hormuz, waiving the Jones Act, and temporarily lifting sanctions on Russian oil. Zoom out Lifting sanctions on Iranian oil would be a remarkable next step โ€” as it was something Iranians were asking for in negotiations last year. The White House referred Axios' questions about Iranian sanctions to the Treasury Department, which didn't immediately respond to a request for comment or more details. The bottom line: The administration appears to be conceding something in war that it was unwilling to give in peace, says Nicholas Mulder, a sanctions expert and professor at Cornell University. "The U.S. has to dial back sanctions to offset the second order effect of war," he says. "It speaks to the instability of the situation."

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Geopolitics

What are the potential implications of territorial divisions in Gaza for peace and stability in the region?

Israeli forces still occupy half of Gaza. In the cease-fire deal, Israel agreed to fully withdraw its presence there once Hamas fully demilitarized. But Amit Segal thinks thatโ€™s unlikely to happen anytime soon. Instead, he believes Gaza will end up divided. So what does that really mean? What are the implications? Segal is the chief political analyst for Channel 12 News in Israel and is known to be quite close to the Netanyahu government. He writes the newsletter Itโ€™s Noon in Israel and is the author of the book โ€œA Call at 4 a.m.: Thirteen Prime Ministers and the Crucial Decisions That Shaped Israeli Politics,โ€ which was recently published in English. In this conversation, he talks about why most Israelis donโ€™t see the cease-fire as the end of the war between Israel and Hamas and how this conflict is mapping onto Israeli politics โ€” both at present and as the country looks toward its next elections. This episode contains strong language. Book Recommendations: The Accidental President by A. J. Baime An Unfinished Love Story by Doris Kearns Goodwin Messiah in Sde Boker by Hagai Segal Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com. You can find the transcript and more episodes of โ€œThe Ezra Klein Showโ€ at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.html This episode of โ€œThe Ezra Klein Showโ€ was

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