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Geopolitics

How can countries work together to promote peace and security in the Middle East while addressing trade concerns?

Here are the latest developments in the Middle East war: - Iran's Hormuz offer to Japan - Iran is willing to help Japanese ships sail the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global fuel supplies, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Kyodo News in an interview published on Saturday. In the telephone interview conducted on Friday, Araghchi denied closing the passageway, saying instead that countries attacking Iran face restrictions while others were being offered assistance. He added that Iran was prepared to ensure safe passage for Japan

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Economy

How should the government respond to the effects of the Iran war on the economy?

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said the Fed is not yet at the moment when it needs to decide whether to "look through" the Iran war energy shock. What they're saying: "It's something we will eventually, maybe, face the question of what to do here. We're not really facing it yet because we don't know what the economic effects will be," Powell told introductory economics students at Harvard University on Monday morning. "We feel like our policy is in a good place for us to wait and see how that turns out." Powell said that the Fed has to consider the economic backdrop against which the shock is occurring. "The broader context is . we've been coming down close to 2% [inflation], post-pandemic, but we've never actually gotten and stayed at 2%," he said. But the Fed chair added that, at least for now, Americans' inflation expectations remain "well-anchored beyond the short term," putting less pressure on the central bank to act now.Powell also joked that maybe the students in the audience should tell him what to do, since they had just completed a problem set on how the Fed should approach such a supply shock. The intrigue: Powell was reluctant to give specific advice to his successor, Kevin Warsh, who is awaiting Senate confirmation. "I'll just say, in general . it's very, very important to stick to your knitting and stick to the things that were actually assigned," Powell said."There's always a time when an administration looks and says, 'It would be good to use [the Fed's tools] for something else,'" he said. "It happens all the time . but we have to be careful to stick to what we're doing." Answering a separate question from a student, Powell offered more insight into how he builds consensus at the Fed. "I think an underrated skill is in listening to people," he said. "If you listen to people, and you hear them . and they understand that you're actually listening to them, and not just communicating at them — for most of the people, most of the time, that's going

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Geopolitics

What are the possible benefits and risks of lifting oil sanctions on Iran for the U.S. and the world?

The White House is considering lifting sanctions on Iranian oil that's at sea to keep oil prices down, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday. Why it matters: The administration is pulling out all the stops — even easing up an economic threat to its enemy in war — to keep down oil prices. The latest: The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, spiked 10% in just the past 24 hours, driving increasing worries among investors. Brent is now around $111 per barrel — nearly 60% higher than pre-war levels. Zoom in: "In the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil that's on the water," Bessent told Fox Business Thursday morning. He said that would make up about 140 million barrels — about 10 days to two weeks of supply."In essence, we'd be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days, as we continue this campaign. So, we have lots of levers." The big picture: The White House has been able for the past few weeks to contain prices with various assurances and policies — promising tanker escorts through the critical Strait of Hormuz, waiving the Jones Act, and temporarily lifting sanctions on Russian oil. Zoom out Lifting sanctions on Iranian oil would be a remarkable next step — as it was something Iranians were asking for in negotiations last year. The White House referred Axios' questions about Iranian sanctions to the Treasury Department, which didn't immediately respond to a request for comment or more details. The bottom line: The administration appears to be conceding something in war that it was unwilling to give in peace, says Nicholas Mulder, a sanctions expert and professor at Cornell University. "The U.S. has to dial back sanctions to offset the second order effect of war," he says. "It speaks to the instability of the situation."

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