How do you think redistricting affects political fairness and representation for all parties?
Data: Axios analysis of data from Dave's Redistricting and Redistricting Data Hub; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals The redistricting war President Trump forced on his party appears to have backfired. With Virginia's vote Tuesday, Republicans are now favored in fewer House seats than if the war had never started. Why it matters: Trump bet his slim House majority on a mid-decade redrawing frenzy. It's increasingly looking like a self-inflicted wound, leaving Republicans with long-shot hopes of any major rewards. While House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and his caucus celebrate their "[m]aximum warfare" win, a Florida showdown and pending Supreme Court decision give Republicans scant hopes to stanch the bleeding. The latest: A Virginia judge on the Tazewell Circuit Court temporarily blocked the state from certifying the referendum results in a decision the state's attorney general vowed to appeal. Between the lines: One way to measure the change is by overlaying the last two presidential elections on the old and new maps across the seven states that redrew lines. Using 2024 results, Kamala Harris would have carried six more seats than before redistricting, per an Axios analysis of data from Dave's Redistricting and the Redistricting Data Hub.Using 2020 results, Joe Biden would have carried two more. By the numbers: Virginia's new map could shift its delegation from 6–5 to 10–1 for Dems. The prospect of snagging up to four blue seats adds to redistricting pickups in California, where Dems could flip five, and Utah, now home to another more Democratic seat.Republican redistricting efforts, on the other hand, aim to grab up to five new seats in Texas, two in Ohio, one in North Carolina and one in Missouri.Sabato's Crystal Ball rates 217 districts as at least leaning Democratic, 205 as at least leaning Republican and 13 as toss-ups after Virginia's vote. What's next: Florida legislators will return to Tallahassee later this month for a delayed special session, ma