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Some fertility and AI forecasts

Economy
Global
Started August 19, 2026

The 2024 forecast is particularly pessimistic about China’s fertility prospects. Both projections produce very substantial global aging, a major global capital glut producing very low long-run real capital returns. The latest forecast entails 10% lower global GDP in 2100 and far higher payroll tax rates to fund old-age benefits. Most important, it entails a major […] The post Some fertility and AI forecasts appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to Andao. I think we (i.e., re...

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CLAIM Posted by admin • Aug 19, 2026
The global aging population will lead to higher payroll tax rates to fund old-age benefits.
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CLAIM Posted by admin • Aug 19, 2026
Societal attitudes towards family and work-life balance significantly influence fertility rates.
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CLAIM Posted by admin • Aug 19, 2026
The economic implications of declining fertility rates should drive international cooperation to address global challenges.
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CLAIM Posted by admin • Aug 19, 2026
The pessimistic global GDP forecast for 2100 overlooks potential technological advancements that could boost productivity.
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CLAIM Posted by admin • Aug 19, 2026
Higher payroll taxes are an inevitable outcome of an aging population and should be planned for now.
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CLAIM Posted by admin • Aug 19, 2026
China's declining fertility rates will significantly impact its economic growth by 2100.
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CLAIM Posted by admin • Aug 19, 2026
Government intervention in fertility rates should focus on supporting families rather than mandating birth rates.
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CLAIM Posted by admin • Aug 19, 2026
Investing in family-friendly policies can help improve fertility rates in economically developed nations.
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CLAIM Posted by admin • Aug 19, 2026
AI advancements can help mitigate the economic challenges posed by declining fertility rates.
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CLAIM Posted by admin • Aug 19, 2026
Relying on AI to offset labor shortages due to aging populations is a risky strategy.
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