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Marginal Revolution

Marginal Revolution

Newsletter | United States | Centre-Right
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Economics blog by Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok covering economics, culture, and ideas.

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Articles

Discussions from Marginal Revolution

Technology

NYT debate on the rules for AI companies

Emily Bazelon was the moderator, there were five of us in the symposium. Excerpt from me: Bores: Do you think the federal government pre-empting the states is consistent with democracy? Cowen: Absolutely. We have federal laws that pre-empt state lawmaking in many other areas. Courts have upheld it many, many times. Bores: OK, but is […] The post NYT debate on the rules for AI companies appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to Mike in Va. The first line is only OpenAI and . b...

United States
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Culture

Is “Who’s on First?” funny?

Well, no, it is not funny, it would be too easy to relieve the dramatic tension by having Abbott explain the actual situation to Costello. One is not wrong to call the whole thing stupid. Yet there is another reading of the skit which stands at least some chance of being funny, though it is […] The post Is “Who’s on First?” funny? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Commentsit is funny by samRelated StoriesThe Panic PatrolFacts about breastfeedingHow Long Do Wealth Shocks Persist? Less Tha...

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Economy

Facts about breastfeeding

We produce a numerical estimate of the value of unpaid breastfeeding relative to national income spanning five centuries and integrating historical and bioarchaeological data. The relative economic contribution of maternal nursing was greater in the distant past than in recent history, rivaling regionally significant industries such as pottery, glassmaking, and even the historical public sector. […] The post Facts about breastfeeding appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn my experi...

Global
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Politics

Frances Lee on American elections

More likely than interference with the election is that unsuccessful office-seekers will refuse to concede, claiming their opponents cheated. Nothing is more basic to democratic legitimacy than the loser’s consent. Many feared that Mr Trump’s refusal to concede in 2020 would spread across the political system. It has not. Bright Line Watch, a research group, […] The post Frances Lee on American elections appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesI guest host an NYT podcast with Mi...

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Technology

Why are cybersecurity losses not worse?

Here’s the first part of my theory: cybercriminals are not the organized geniuses we implicitly imagine. Anyone building a criminal gang has to find candidates willing to forgo more stable opportunities in the formal economy. My modeling estimated that something like 720,000 people are involved in the online criminal economy, 90% of them in scam […] The post Why are cybersecurity losses not worse? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesCybersecurity ETFPodcast with Rabbi David ...

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Society

Emergent Ventures India, 20th cohort

Zahan Turel, a backend engineer and eighth-generation Zoroastrian priest from Surat, received a grant to digitize his community’s manuscripts and liturgical records before they are lost. Aditya Vijay, 17, is building Forge, supporting overlooked, self-taught young founders with shared housing, capital, and access. Dev Goyal received a grant for SCRIPT, exploring whether stylus-based drawing kinematics […] The post Emergent Ventures India, 20th cohort appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Rel...

India
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Economy

How central bankers spend their time

How leaders allocate their limited time and attention is an important question in economics. This paper constructs and analyzes a novel data set covering the daily calendars of three Federal Reserve Chairs, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and Jerome Powell, containing more than 20,000 calendar entries. We document several patterns. First, all Fed Chairs spend more […] The post How central bankers spend their time appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesPrediction Markets Are Accurat...

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Geopolitics

Prediction Markets Are Accurate

No surprise to me but a new paper looks at the forecast accuracy of over one million prediction questions from Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold and the forecasting platform Metaculus. A virtue of the new analysis is that it covers many different areas from business to elections to geo-politics. An event predicted to happen p% of the […] The post Prediction Markets Are Accurate appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesHow Long Do Wealth Shocks Persist? Less Than Three Generations in E...

Global
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Technology

I guest host an NYT podcast with Michael Kratsios, Trump science advisor

Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is one excerpt: Cowen: Talk me out of this worry: So we agree science is an ecosystem, and there’s always a temptation to want to fund the most dynamic, most productive parts of the ecosystem. And right now, that would probably be A.I. But if you need […] The post I guest host an NYT podcast with Michael Kratsios, Trump science advisor appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesWill bystander economies be able to finance their governme...

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Economy

How Long Do Wealth Shocks Persist? Less Than Three Generations in England, 1700–2026

What happens across generations to wealth shocks? Do they endure and even magnify, or do they dissipate? By implication, how much modern wealth is attributable to events before 1900? This paper uses random shocks to family size in England before 1880 that created wealth shocks for the children to measure the persistence of wealth shocks. […] The post How Long Do Wealth Shocks Persist? Less Than Three Generations in England, 1700–2026 appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to ...

England
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