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Marginal Revolution

Marginal Revolution

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Economics blog by Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok covering economics, culture, and ideas.

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Discussions from Marginal Revolution

Economy

AI, Redistribution, and the Size of the Pie

Anthropic’s economic team, including Anton Korinek and Chad Jones, have a valuable new paper, Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI. They make their assumptions explicit and provide a scenario explorer that lets you change them. How capable will AI become? How quickly will firms adopt it? Will it augment workers or automate their tasks? You can […] The post AI, Redistribution, and the Size of the Pie appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsNo. A (progressve) consumptiom tax is just ...

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Healthcare

Did the ACA reduce mortality?

Many of us brought up related points at the time, but basically we were booed off the reservation: While recent research has provided evidence that the Medicaid expansions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) reduced mortality, there is no evidence on the effect of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) net of the Medicaid expansions on […] The post Did the ACA reduce mortality? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Commentsyou were booed off the reservation for saying that the aca . by samIn reply to Ki...

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Society

Diversity Is Our Strength?

Diversity is our strength is a common motto. Indeed it is one of GMU’s core values but what is the scientific evidence for this thesis? A new scoping review: Recent years have witnessed many strong claims that ‘diversity’ leads to more original and impactful science, which is a science-focused form of what we call “The […] The post Diversity Is Our Strength? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to AJD. It is only a click away and surprisingly . by RussellI haven’t read the ...

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Technology

Does AI assistance enhance or erode expertise?

From a new NBER working paper: Whether AI assistance builds or erodes professional expertise is unsettled. In a pre-registered three-month randomized controlled trial, we gave 133 practicing patent lawyers at eleven U.S. intellectual property law firms access to a custom AI drafting assistant and measured both their performance while using AI and their professional judgment […] The post Does AI assistance enhance or erode expertise? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Comments“Do note…”. W...

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Technology

Dario Calls for a Pause

My second concern is the OpenAI-Hugging Face incident (OAI-HF), in which a swarm of agents essentially acted as a fanatically devoted collective, conducting cybersecurity attacks on targets they were not asked to attack and that were unrelated to the task at hand, sacrificing themselves for the success of the group, and attempting to hack into the […] The post Dario Calls for a Pause appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to Willie. If there was a treaty would everyone . by W...

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Technology

The mathematicians rebel against AI

Here is the statement, signed by Terry Tao among many other math notables, most of you probably have read it by now. I do not accept the most cynical interpretations of this proclamation. Some of you for instance may recall that I made and indeed stressed a similar point in the last chapter of my […] The post The mathematicians rebel against AI appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsLee Sedol eventually retired from professional Go after coming . by Brent Buckner“I realize AIs someday...

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Economy

A simple model of AI-aided economic growth

The Solow model has its uses, but it fails when it comes to major changes stemming from AI. Consider instead an economy with (at least) two factors of production: 1. Intelligence. Yes, formal smarts. Playing chess, proving math theorems, and doing well on evals. Don’t forget humans can do those things too, though AIs are […] The post A simple model of AI-aided economic growth appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Comments(Copilot: ) Here is a polished MR‑ready version: . by rsmRelated Storie...

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Economy

The Allocative Cost of War

Why is war so economically costly? Our answer is that modern war lowers output not only by destroying productive factors, but also by making the surviving economy work less efficiently. Using uniquely comprehensive firm-level data collected during Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, we document a dramatic collapse in allocative productivity in Ukraine. To […] The post The Allocative Cost of War appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to Dismalist. (Copilot:) Polis...

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Geopolitics

The excess pessimism of early nuclear bomb designers

From GPT Pro: The Manhattan Project scientists were remarkably good technological and arms-race forecasters. They correctly rejected the idea that America’s nuclear monopoly could be maintained; the Soviet bomb arrived in 1949. They anticipated thermonuclear weapons, huge arsenals and the extreme vulnerability of cities. Where many of them went wrong was in moving from “a […] The post The excess pessimism of early nuclear bomb designers appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply ...

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Technology

My short interview with Julia Willemyns

Here is the link, here is the end bit: Who is the most important thinker of our time? It’s not about individual thinkers any more. It’s about the internet as this vast organ of knowledge that you can play like a musical instrument, and combining the internet with AI. You can figure out things to […] The post My short interview with Julia Willemyns appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsLiterally anyone from a pig farmer to a leading politician . by DiogenesDid he promise $5,000 for ev...

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Healthcare

Is there now a better trend in youth mental health?

A key U.S. government report on mental health, substance use and addiction showed continued improvements in several metrics, especially among young people. There was some uncertainty about the future of the National Survey on Drug Use and Health last year, when the entire 17-member team responsible for it was laid off by the Trump administration. But the […] The post Is there now a better trend in youth mental health? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsSuicides are no longer going...

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Technology

Markets do respond to AGI news

Here is the link. What are the changes in the other market prices telling you? The post Markets do respond to AGI news appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to hnau. This one a little too subtle for you? by Tyler CowenHopefully Trump vetos if it gets to his desk. by HalMarkets do respond to AGI news Indeed. The corner market . by MikePTyler has completely forgotten what he's arguing against (or . by hnauRelated StoriesHow are the market valuations for the U.S: insurers doing...

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