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Marginal Revolution

Marginal Revolution

Newsletter | United States | Centre-Right
marginalrevolution.com/

Economics blog by Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok covering economics, culture, and ideas.

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Articles

Discussions from Marginal Revolution

💻 Technology
February 10, 2026

For a long time I have been predicting the return of phrenology

Yup: Human capital—encompassing cognitive skills and personality traits—is central for labor-market success, yet personality remains difficult to measure at scale. Leveraging advances in AI and comprehensive LinkedIn microdata, we extract the Big 5 personality traits from facial images of 96,000 MBA graduates, and demonstrate that this novel “Photo Big 5” predicts school rank, job matching, […] The post For a long time I have been predicting the return of phrenology appeared first on Marginal...

United States
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💼 Business
February 10, 2026

This security will be pricing *something* (but what?)

Alphabet has lined up banks to sell a rare 100-year bond, stepping up a borrowing spree by Big Tech companies racing to fund their vast investments in artificial intelligence this year. The so-called century bond will form part of a debut sterling issuance this week by Google’s parent company, according to people familiar with the […] The post This security will be pricing something (but what?) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to mento. Except the bonds are being issu...

Global
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📈 Economy
February 10, 2026

Poverty reduction is slowing down

The basic reason why I’m not very optimistic about Africa’s growth prospects under current conditions is that the track record is extremely poor, and there’s little reason to think that anything fundamental has changed. Between 1992 and 2022, median income in China grew at an average annualized rate of 6.6 percent per year; in India […] The post Poverty reduction is slowing down appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesThis security will be pricing something (but what?)For a lo...

Global
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🏛️ Politics
February 09, 2026

Bryan Caplan on immigration backlash

Bryan writes: Tyler tries to cure my immigration backlash confusion, but not to my satisfaction. The overarching flaw: He equivocates between two different versions of “backlash to immigration.” Version 1: Letting in more immigrants leads to more resistance to immigration. Version 2: Letting in more immigrants leads to so much resistance to immigration that the total stock of […] The post Bryan Caplan on immigration backlash appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsWell said Tyler. Exce...

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🎭 Culture
February 09, 2026

Why is Singapore no longer “cool”?

To be clear, I am not blaming Singapore on this one. But it is striking to me how much Americans do not talk about Singapore any more. They are much, much more likely to talk about Europe or England, for instance. I see several reasons for this: 1. Much of the Singapore fascination came from […] The post Why is Singapore no longer “cool”? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesBryan Caplan on immigration backlashThe polity that is Bolivia?Trump’s Pharmaceutical Plan

United States
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📈 Economy
February 08, 2026

Sebastian Galiani on the Marginal Revolution

The most successful economics blog in the world is called Marginal Revolution. That is not an accident…. Consider a few common mistakes that reappear whenever marginal thinking is abandoned: Treating the owner’s biography—wealth, identity, status—as if it entered the firm’s marginal conditions. It does not. Confusing redistribution with allocation. Redistribution is a legitimate political choice, but […] The post Sebastian Galiani on the Marginal Revolution appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTI...

Global
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👥 Society
February 08, 2026

A new hypothesis (from my email)

From Anonymous: Hello Professor Cowen, I hope all is well with you and that you have navigated the recent weather alright. I have a thought that I wanted to run by you that related to phones and teen anxiety. You have cited a variety of studies that say that phones and social media do not cause anxiety. […] The post A new hypothesis (from my email) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsThis artificial debate about the effects of social media on . by 3 seconds on a catapultI would say...

United States
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👥 Society
February 07, 2026

How much is childlessness the fertility problem?

The average decline in fertility among these recent cohorts relative to the cohorts preceding them by 20 years was 0.25 births. Of this decline, 0.09 births, or 37 percent of the gap, is statistically accounted for by increased childlessness in the later cohort. The remaining 0.16 births, or 63 percent of the gap, is accounted […] The post How much is childlessness the fertility problem? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to IL V $*. Justice entitled him to laugh; i wrote...

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📈 Economy
February 07, 2026

The economics of the NBA trading deadline (from my email)

From an anonymous correspondent: Perhaps, as NBA fan, there’s a column to be written about the incentives that drove the NBA trade market: namely the all-out search to avoid/get out of the luxury tax and the looming “tank” battle among the 6 worst teams. These are both direct results of the recent NBA collective bargaining […] The post The economics of the NBA trading deadline (from my email) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to Cancelled for wongthink. Gibe, dude, it's ...

United States
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🏛️ Politics
February 07, 2026

Can government coerce women into having more babies?

To illustrate this challenge of measurement and inference, Figure 7 presents Romanian birth rates before, during, and after the imposition of an infamously coercive policy aimed at raising births. In 1966, a dictatorial government imposed Decree 770, which banned abortion and made modern contraception effectively inaccessible. The figure extends an idea from Sobotka, Matysiak, and […] The post Can government coerce women into having more babies? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related ...

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🎭 Culture
February 06, 2026

Hanno Lustig and Romain Wacziarg now have a Substack

Self-recommending, here goes. The post Hanno Lustig and Romain Wacziarg now have a Substack appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsYou should get a substack. by Hazel MeadeIt's an unexpected treat to find a clearly written, insightful . by Indoor CampingRelated StoriesArgentina dollar facts of the dayPlug me back in!Trump’s Pharmaceutical Plan

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📈 Economy
February 06, 2026

Argentina dollar facts of the day

From greenbacks stuffed into children’s teddy bears to fortunes tucked away in the ceiling, Argentines have more than $250 billion in dollars stashed at home, along with offshore accounts and safe-deposit boxes—some six times the reserves of the central bank. But two years into Milei’s government, Argentines are easing their grip on their precious dollars. […] The post Argentina dollar facts of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsMy cousin married a man that grew up in Arge...

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