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Marginal Revolution

Marginal Revolution

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Economics blog by Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok covering economics, culture, and ideas.

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Economy

Why are stock prices still so high?

That is the topic of my latest Free Press column, here is one excerpt, with the general theme that plenty is going well in the global economy: A second important fact is that American presidents, whether Democrat or Republican, usually have very little influence on the economy. That is a hard truth for people to […] The post Why are stock prices still so high? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to yo. Nice diversion tactics, yo:). No more . by Kaz StanczakBecause YOU want...

United States
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Economy

Using agents to build economic datasets

Constructing datasets from primary sources is one of the costliest tasks in empirical economics. We propose Deep Research on a Loop (DRIL), a methodology that uses AI agents to assemble datasets from publicly available sources. DRIL applies a fixed research instrument across a mapped unit space (e.g., countries by years), with a two-stage architecture separating […] The post Using agents to build economic datasets appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsDon't get me wrong; I think this...

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Technology

Will AI kill the research paper?

Imagine taking a macroeconomics paper and adding a little button at the end “Press this button to update this paper with the latest macro data.” All of a sudden you have multiple papers rather than one, and no single canonical version. It is the latter versions, not created directly by the authors, that people will […] The post Will AI kill the research paper? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsThis is a system of record plus standardized reports. The . by RADI'm not anti AI, but ...

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Economy

USA sectoral shift fact of the day

Healthcare and Social Assistance have added nearly 1.8 million private-sector jobs in the US since the end of 2023 while all of other industries combined have lost 127,800 jobs. Here is the source (Charlie Bilello) and a graph. In relative terms, is this good or bad for men? The post USA sectoral shift fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIt's good for baby boomer men. by GardelRecognizing that the largest population cohort (boomers) is . by ArthurRelated StoriesThe ...

United States
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Technology

The UAP report so far

I will stick with my earlier Free Press predictions: The fact remains that, if you talk with insiders, they will confirm that the federal government faces some big mysteries. It seems that we have data on what appear to be craft that move very fast, have no visible means of propulsion, and can accelerate in a surprising […] The post The UAP report so far appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesPublic Choice Outreach!The UFO filesDo Americans really hate AI?

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Education

Which are the most common everyday phenomena that we don’t properly understand?

Off the top of my head: • Lightning (how does it happen?) • Sleep; dreams (why do they exist?) • Glass (thermodynamics of formation) • Turbulence (when does it start?) • Morphogenesis (how does a creature know what should go where?) • Rain (it seems to start faster than models would predict) • Ice (dynamics […] The post Which are the most common everyday phenomena that we don’t properly understand? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsWhich are the most common everyday phenomena tha...

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Economy

A simple point about diversification

In recent times a significant percentage of the S&P 500 run-up has been driven by a small number of tech and AI stocks. Plus the effects of AI can be expected to be further reaching yet for some while. That makes it harder to diversify against risk, as there is a single dominant variable, namely […] The post A simple point about diversification appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to rsm. Noise – and anything you might call . by Wayfaring StrangerThe VIX is at 17%. So, conc...

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Politics

The social media ban in Australia, how is it going?

In December 2025, Australia became the first country to ban youth under 16 years old from holding accounts on major social media platforms, a policy now under consideration in more than a dozen countries and in numerous states. Because social media use is inherently social, the effectiveness of a ban that is easy to circumvent […] The post The social media ban in Australia, how is it going? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to Vince. This is the copium I came to the comm...

Australia
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Economy

AGI Could Lower Interest Rates

Standard models predict that expectations of artificial general intelligence (AGI) should elevate long-term interest rates. I show that this prediction need not hold. I develop a heterogeneous-agent asset pricing model in which AGI, or more broadly, transformative AI (TAI) capable of automating most human labor, can lower interest rates even as it dramatically accelerates growth. […] The post AGI Could Lower Interest Rates appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsWe cannot agree on a de...

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Technology

Do Americans really hate AI?

We might be heading towards a populist backlash towards AI, but we’re not there yet. Outside the tech bubble, Americans really don’t care about AI yet. AI is Americans’ 29th most important issue, according to the fantastic survey @davidshor ran that everyone is rightly looking at. It’s not surprising that Americans will answer sentiment questions about AI […] The post Do Americans really hate AI? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsThis seems like a reasonable point. Most of the AI...

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Economy

ICE has not improved U.S. labor markets

We provide the first causal, national empirical analysis of the labor market impacts of heightened immigration enforcement during the second Trump administration. Enforcement increased everywhere, but, we take advantage of the fact that the increases have been uneven across geographic areas to classify areas as treated or control and then implement an event study and […] The post ICE has not improved U.S. labor markets appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to TDS. Trump stil...

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Business

Justin Wolfers update

Wolfers’s moment of clarity ultimately sent him down a road less traveled by academic economists: creating his own media company. On Wednesday, Wolfers, 53, announced that he had founded Platypus Economics, an independent media start-up that aims to reach a mainstream audience. The name is a nod to his Australian roots, cheekily referring to the odd-looking mammal […] The post Justin Wolfers update appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsHow about a mini-series based around the legal, ...

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