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Marginal Revolution

Marginal Revolution

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Economics blog by Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok covering economics, culture, and ideas.

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Discussions de Marginal Revolution

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As predicted, the ACA exchanges seem not to be stable

The average price of health insurance in the Obamacare marketplaces will rise by 13 percent next year, according to an analysis on Friday by KFF, the health research group. The Trump administration on Friday published new prices for 2027 in 30 states with markets managed by the federal government. Using that data and state figures,… The post As predicted, the ACA exchanges seem not to be stable appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to Elder Millennial. TC’s work wife got hea...

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Culture

Should you feel grief for the dead who go to heaven?

I am not myself religious, but let us consider the possible gulf between behavior and doctrine amongst those who are. It has long struck me as a kind of mini-puzzle why people feel so much grief for the departed, at least for the departed who are supposed to be headed for heaven (and yes there… The post Should you feel grief for the dead who go to heaven? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsObviously the grief is

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Économie

William Nordhaus, RIP

Here is notice from Yale, and from Paul Krugman, he was one of the true greats. For the pointer I thank several MR readers. The post William Nordhaus, RIP appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to MikeP. While he accepted the IPCC numberst I . by mentoIn reply to MikeP. pity you havev to have a snide comment . by anonBill was a great economist. He was a big fan of my work . by Mark Skousen“As an economist and as a university citizen, Bill Nordhaus . by MikePHe was great indee...

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Technologie

Are LLMs good or bad Bayesians?

Bryan Caplan: It seems like you and other AIs are bad Bayesians. When presented with counterevidence, you should move toward or against the presenter with roughly equal probability. It depends on whether the argument was better or worse than expected. In fact, you seem to either move toward the speaker or just not change. ChatGPT:… The post Are LLMs good or bad Bayesians? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesHow Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok Have Changed Their Views on AI and...

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Éducation

The unintended consequences of academic leniency

Education is widely recognized as the primary driver of human capital accumulation. However, policies designed to promote educational attainment often overlook students’ endogenous responses. This paper provides empirical evidence of the causal impact of relaxed academic standards on student effort and achievement. We find that academic leniency results in mechanical GPA increases, but significant reductions […] The post The unintended consequences of academic leniency appeared first on Margi...

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Économie

The pass-through of retail crime

This paper shows retailers increase prices in response to organized retail crime. We match store-level crime data to scanner data from the universe of transactions for cannabis retailers in Washington state. Using quasi-experimental variation from robberies and burglaries, we find a 1.7–1.8 percent price increase at victimized stores and nearby competitors. This rise is not […] The post The pass-through of retail crime appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsAre theses crimes mostly mi...

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Économie

Can Artificial Intelligence Forecast Treatment Effects in Economics?

I use LLMs to forecast treatment effects of research studies pre-registered on the AEA RCT Registry and the Open Science Framework. I focus on studies whose results were first publicly released in 2026 and elicit forecasts from models whose training or knowledge cut-off dates were before the relevant set of papers was released. First, LLM […] The post Can Artificial Intelligence Forecast Treatment Effects in Economics? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to Mark C. Not sur...

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Éducation

Chronicle of Higher Education interviews me on AI and education

Scott Carlson did the work (gated, but free with registration), here is one excerpt: Cowen: …Another proposal I’ve made is that schools should let people do one class, only one class, AI-only — no professor, except a professor grades at the end. The professor grades not answers to an exam but the workflow of how […] The post Chronicle of Higher Education interviews me on AI and education appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsPrecisely! I am an AI skeptic as far as scientific inventio...

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Économie

How is AI shaping economic research?

Does generative AI narrow or widen productivity gaps in research? We study the distributional effects of AI on research productivity in economics using evidence from three sources: NBER working-paper and publication records, text-based measures of LLM-assisted writing, and an original survey of 227 academic economists measuring AI use across research tasks. We first show that […] The post How is AI shaping economic research? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsUnfortunately, I am r...

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Économie

Errors in the research of Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman

AI issues its judgment: 138 papers audited 2,035 problems found 147 serious enough to change a headline number 69% of papers have at least one 97% of major and moderate errors with a clear direction overstate the paper’s claim And on the method: Two independent audits of each paper. One by Claude Opus 5.5, one […] The post Errors in the research of Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to Andrew S. The objections to each papier are . by Vivia...

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Culture

My design Conversation with Roman Mars

Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is part of the episode summary: Roman Mars has built one of podcasting’s great empires out of noticing things everyone else walks past. His show, 99% Invisible, has racked up over 500 million downloads telling stories about the unnoticed design choices that quietly shape how cities and […] The post My design Conversation with Roman Mars appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

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Technologie

NYT debate on the rules for AI companies

Emily Bazelon was the moderator, there were five of us in the symposium. Excerpt from me: Bores: Do you think the federal government pre-empting the states is consistent with democracy? Cowen: Absolutely. We have federal laws that pre-empt state lawmaking in many other areas. Courts have upheld it many, many times. Bores: OK, but is […] The post NYT debate on the rules for AI companies appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to Mike in Va. The first line is only OpenAI and . b...

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