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Marginal Revolution

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Economics blog by Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok covering economics, culture, and ideas.

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Artigos

Discussões de Marginal Revolution

Economy

Words of wisdom, on China shock 2.0

Michael Pettis frequently claims that, by running large surpluses, China is forcing “the demand-suppressing cost of their policies onto their trading partners.” The idea here is relatively straightforward: by disincentivizing consumption within China, China’s policies are reducing domestic demand, which, ceteris paribus, reduces global demand. The problem with this logic should be fairly obvious: ceteris is not in fact paribus. It assumes other countries […] The post Words of wisdom, on China...

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Environment

Pro-Development Environmentalists

The Breakthrough Institute (BTI) found that “just 10 organizations initiated 35% of the total NEPA cases brought by NGOs.” The Sierra Club and its local chapters alone were responsible for more than 14% of these lawsuits. The dominance of a small number of groups is more pronounced in forest management and energy cases; only 10 […] The post Pro-Development Environmentalists appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsGood post Alex. However I know people who worked very hard . by Wayfaring...

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Society

The collapse of teen fertility in the digital era

Teen fertility collapsed globally starting around 2007. This affected countries across the income and policy spectrum. This paper argues that smartphones changed how teens spend time with each other, and that this change in turn drove the collapse in teen fertility. Once enough teens are on the phone, being on the phone is where the […] The post The collapse of teen fertility in the digital era appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to Scott Sumner. I guess it's time we promo...

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Economy

Capitalism and Modernity

Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, one of the few economists in the world equally at home solving stochastic dynamic optimization problems as with sociological theory and history, has an excellent series of twitter posts on capitalism and modernity. JFV: I have been reading (and re-reading) a lot of social theory. What strikes me is that most critics of […] The post Capitalism and Modernity appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesHUD Says It’s Legal to Tell the TruthOn health care pric...

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Business

My very charming Conversation with Craig Newmark

Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is part of the episode summary: Tyler and Craig discuss why webpage design has gotten worse for 30 years, what Craig’s “obsessive customer service disorder” taught him about human nature, why trusting people and maintaining a nine-second rule for scams aren’t as contradictory as they sound, why […] The post My very charming Conversation with Craig Newmark appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsThe very opposite of Ray Dalio energy. There'...

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Technology

talkie: an LM from 1930

Here is the link, with explanation. The post talkie: an LM from 1930 appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsUser which country is most likely to aggressively invade a . by vimspotIn reply to Etalon d’Silomar. Almost as if there was a . by JPIn reply to Seth Green. The project creators say their next . by Jon BUser: How old is the Earth? talkie-1930: The earth is . by Jumfrey Tuckins, President of TexasWhat if you asked an LLM trained on economics up to 1987 what . by rsmPlus 10 more.R...

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Economy

The economic rise of Latin America?

When the world goes looking for shelter during an oil war, the destinations are predictable: the dollar, gold, short-term Treasuries. Nobody puts Latin American sovereign bonds on that list. Yet as the dollar surged in March, the region’s average sovereign spread didn’t move. There was no contagion. The reason is structural, not lucky: as net […] The post The economic rise of Latin America? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsGlad to hear most of this. You got floating rates and do...

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Technology

Will AI end anonymity?

Like many journalists, I have a bunch of unpublished fiction lying about, so I tried Claude on the first chapter of a romance novel that I started almost 20 years ago, during the hysterical, mawkish phase of a particularly bad breakup. “Megan McArdle,” said Opus 4.7, after a few seconds of thought. Fascinated, I kept […] The post Will AI end anonymity? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to RAD. It's about the truth, and AI cannot tell the . by raywardIn reply to RAD. Not ...

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Business

Mushroom facts of the day

You would be surprised to learn that almost 69% of the US mushroom production occurs in the borough of Kennett Square, Pennsylvania. It is a small town of about 6000 people, but mushroom-growing facilities around town produce almost 451 million pounds of mushrooms annually (2024). 451 million pounds of mushrooms would occupy about 45 American football fields or 35 […] The post Mushroom facts of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsMuch of the piece is about why mushroom prod...

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Healthcare

On health care price transparency (from the comments)

From MR commentator Sure: Generally such figures do not reside within the physicians’ office. On our side of the table we do some procedure with multiple specifications and generate some CPT code(s) (e.g. a lap cholycystectomy is 47562, add on a common bile duct exploration and it becomes a 47564, and if you just do […] The post On health care price transparency (from the comments) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesGenerative AI and EntrepreneurshipThe Pernicious Trade Acc...

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Economy

The Pernicious Trade Account

The trade accounts are among the most pernicious statistics ever collected. It’s long been remarked, for example, that merely by calling something a “deficit” it seems bad even though a current account deficit is matched by a financial account surplus. Put that issue aside, however, because the real problems are much deeper. The international accounts […] The post The Pernicious Trade Account appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesOn the impact of Trump’s tariffsGrowth is getti...

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Economy

Will AI save the U.S. fiscal situation?

A tenth of a percentage point of extra productivity growth — well within the range of plausible near-term AI effects — raises the fundamental value of U.S. government debt by $1.3 trillion. If markets fully priced this in, nominal Treasury yields would fall by about 70 basis points. Half a percentage point of extra growth […] The post Will AI save the U.S. fiscal situation? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsManna from heaven. by Dismalist

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