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Marginal Revolution

Marginal Revolution

Newsletter | United States | Centre-Right
marginalrevolution.com/

Economics blog by Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok covering economics, culture, and ideas.

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Discussions from Marginal Revolution

Economy

Mistakes in financial economics

I feel like this is almost deliberately missing the point. My median expectation is that AI boosts the economy enormously, so shorting things would be a terrible idea. But non-trivial tail risk is that it kills everyone. So shorting things would be pointless. That is from Tom Chivers. It is easy enough to say buy […] The post Mistakes in financial economics appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to j mct. Conversely, the lucky investors often . by mkt42Is Tyler saying he's bu...

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Politics

My very interesting Conversation with Daron Acemoglu

Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is the episode summary: Daron Acemoglu returns for his second appearance with a new book, What Happened to Liberal Democracy?, which Tyler reads as an attempt to redefine and revitalize liberalism for our times. Where Daron’s first visit was about how states and societies contend for the narrow […] The post My very interesting Conversation with Daron Acemoglu appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesMy excellent Conversation with Jul...

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Economy

How much will cybersecurity costs rise?

Here is one (partial) estimate of the higher cyber costs. I am not sure how many incidents they have in mind, but this seems to me realistic as an estimate but also rather modest relative to the Angst I am seeing? Not quite “a Gilda Radner thing,” but if nothing else shows the usefulness of […] The post How much will cybersecurity costs rise? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsI see Tyler's going for stealth edits and deleting comments . by JFAIn reply to MelancholyYuga. “Putting ...

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Economy

Immigrant Earnings Assimilation, 1981–2021

In this paper, we characterize trends in the earnings assimilation of immigrant workers from 1981 to 2021. We use administrative longitudinal data that contain the earnings of workers beginning in their first year of residence in the United States and in each year thereafter, allowing us to identify immigrants who eventually leave the United States […] The post Immigrant Earnings Assimilation, 1981–2021 appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesHow well does AI peer review work?Wh...

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Politics

Who enters Congress?

We trace the family origins of Members of Congress (MC) born between 1830 and 1950, linking each MC, their parents, and their brothers to the complete-count censuses. Future MCs have always been economic outliers. By 1940, close to 60 percent of MCs aged 18–40 held a college degree, against under 5 percent of comparable young […] The post Who enters Congress? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesDo Faculty Affect Student Partisanship?My excellent Conversation with Julia Ioffe...

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Technology

Act like it is science

I am seeing so many doom prognostications, or least severe worries, due to the OAI/HuggingFace incident and related stories. But virtually all of these I find underargued to say the least. So I have a simple request. If you are worried, and wish to persuade the doubters, try the methods of science. I would like […] The post Act like it is science appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsOne firm’s cybersecurity spending is another firm’s . by Kaz StanczakOne of the principles of contemp...

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Education

Do Faculty Affect Student Partisanship?

We study whether Democratic college professors make their students more liberal. We link voter data to salary records from 33 state flagships and show that faculty skew Democratic, especially in the humanities and social sciences. We then use student transcripts from one flagship to estimate causal effects. Students become more liberal during college regardless of […] The post Do Faculty Affect Student Partisanship? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesMy excellent Conversati...

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Geopolitics

The future of warfare? (from my email)

As weapon systems increase in effectiveness, they will generally target one another rather than humans. Lower loss of life will ease conflict entry and hinder exit. Warfare will veer further from industrial competition into techno-industrial; the current appearance of parity between low tech and advanced actors reflects near zero deployment of advanced systems. As these […] The post The future of warfare? (from my email) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to Vivian Darkbl...

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Society

Is there a Balkan fertility paradox? (from my email)

The Balkans may be the only region other than central Asia where fertility has increased from 2015 to 2026.* All of the highest fertility rates in Europe are in the Balkans. As of 2024: Montenegro (1.8), Bulgaria (1.73) Moldova (1.73), and Serbia (1.64) are top four. France was next at 1.61. Other balkan countries were […] The post Is there a Balkan fertility paradox? (from my email) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsThis is the first time I've ever heard of Hungary being called ...

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Education

*Restoring Childhood: How to Set Kids Free in the Age of Anxiety*

That is the new book by Peter Gray, and it is very much a whole philosophy of child-rearing and also antidote to the current panic over social media. Excerpt: In preparation for this chapter, I spent weeks poring over the research literature pretaining to smartphones, social media, and teen mental health. It is clear to […] The post Restoring Childhood: How to Set Kids Free in the Age of Anxiety appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesWhat I’ve been readingMy excellent Convers...

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Economy

Solve for the (Refine) equilibrium

We’re proud to announce that Refine has signed partnerships with two leading publishers in economics. Both the American Economic Association and the Econometric Society now use Refine’s AI-assisted technical verification as part of their publication processes. Here is the thread. And more comments here. The post Solve for the (Refine) equilibrium appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesWill U.S. cities face a knock-on fiscal crisis from the feds?More math breakthroughs from GPT ...

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