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Marginal Revolution

Marginal Revolution

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Economics blog by Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok covering economics, culture, and ideas.

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Discussions from Marginal Revolution

Education

Thomas Gresham is underrated

While northern professions in 1600 did not require lengthy training in mathematics or science, there was popular interest in these topics. England’s first chair in mathematics was endowed by Thomas Gresham,61 who had founded London’s Royal Exchange and pledged the rents from that institution to fund seven professorships, who would not train student but would […] The post Thomas Gresham is underrated appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to Wayfaring Stranger. I have no objec...

United Kingdom
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Technology

The exposed counties (from my email)

Professor Cowen, Built a county-level AI displacement model across all 3,204 US counties. Top 5 most exposed counties are all in the DC metro, not the Rust Belt. https://yourjobrisk.com https://jakeprokopets.substack.com/p/why-the-most-ai-exposed-counties 18, built it in three days. Jake Prokopets The post The exposed counties (from my email) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to Bob. I have literally taught a course on how . by Scott MauldinDid I mention I am 18? by A Gu...

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Economy

Those old factory sector jobs

As AI sweeps into white-collar workplaces, old-timey hands-on jobs are getting a new look—and some of those professions even have shortages. Consider tailors. Sewing is a vanishing skill, much like lacemaking and watchmaking, putting tailors in short supply when big retailers like Nordstrom and Men’s Wearhouse, as well as fashion designers and local dry cleaners, […] The post Those old factory sector jobs appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesThe Luddites Were the First to Att...

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Economy

The Average is Over generation?

The result is that even though today’s young adults, and graduates in particular, are over-represented in the top quartile of the earnings distribution, they are also far more likely to be at the bottom than the top for earnings relative to reasonable expectations. In both the UK and US, even though only 10 percent of […] The post The Average is Over generation? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Comments“Reasonable” is doing a lot of work here. by SethLots of head wind for young adults, ...

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Economy

Technological unemployment in Victorian Britain

We do not know whether technological unemployment swept across England in the wake of the British Industrial Revolution. In this paper, I propose an approach to quantify jobs lost to, and created by, creative destruction in the 19th century. Using over 170 million individual records from the full-count British census (1851–1911), I generate sub-industry “task” […] The post Technological unemployment in Victorian Britain appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to Steve Sailer. ...

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Economy

Zimbabwe facts of the day

Zimbabwe, often considered an economic basket-case because of its history of farm seizures and hyperinflation, is enjoying an idiosyncratic boom. High prices for the metal and other commodities have led to a surge of cash through its highly informal economy. They have made it easier for authorities to stop printing money and meddling in currency […] The post Zimbabwe facts of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to Kyoto. There are a group of coffee shops near . by ...

Zimbabwe
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Economy

A Comparison of Agentic AI Systems and Human Economists

This paper compares agentic AI systems and human economists performing the same causal inference tasks. AI systems and humans generally obtain similar median causal effect estimates. While there is substantial dispersion of estimates across model instances, the human distributions of estimates have wider tails. Using AI models as reviewers to compare and rank “submissions,” the […] The post A Comparison of Agentic AI Systems and Human Economists appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Comments...

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Education

Will college get fixed?

That is the topic of my latest Free Press column. Here is one excerpt: So schools will respond to cost pressures by letting quality deteriorate. More instruction will be of the inferior online variety. There are very good online experiences, but schools are too bureaucratic and not run well enough to deliver them. Fewer professors […] The post Will college get fixed? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesEmergent Ventures India, 16th cohortThe Public Choice Outreach Conference...

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Geopolitics

That was then, this is not now?

The 1941 Anglo-Soviet invasion destroyed Reza Shah — but not the Pahlavi state. The two Allies — joined by the United States in December 1941 — realized that the Iranian state could be useful in achieving the two goals for which they had invaded the country: physical control over oil — the British nightmare in […] The post That was then, this is not now? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIndeed. Indeed. Indeed. Indi, indy, indie, iterant, indeedy. by )P uioThat was then, this is ...

Iran
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Economy

The Chinese Current Account Imbalances

The subtitle of the paper is Puzzles, Patterns, and Possible Causes. Here is the abstract: China’s large current account surplus has been an irritant to its trading partners. While industrial and trade policies often lead to sector-level imbalances, they play a relatively limited role in the economy-wide surplus. Structural factors such as an unbalanced sex […] The post The Chinese Current Account Imbalances appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesIn Development magazineRevising...

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Education

Emergent Ventures India, 16th cohort

Roumak Das, a grade 11 student from West Bengal, and Samik Goyal, a 12th grader from Patiala, received their grants to travel to the International Olympiad in Artificial Intelligence 2025 in Beijing, where Roumak won a gold medal and Samik a silver medal. Roumak’s grant also supports his college applications, and Samik’s grant supports SPOI, […] The post Emergent Ventures India, 16th cohort appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to ukno1. Enter Vanderbilt. by CorneliusMichiga...

Global
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Economy

In Development magazine

A new venture, focusing on evidence-based approaches to economic development globally. Here is Paul Niehaus on GiveDirectly and the evidence for cash-based transfers. Here is the home page and a link to subscribe. The post In Development magazine appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to Phil S. In place of studying empirically, maybe . by BCIn reply to Phil S. One faggot I met said we want a wall. by Art Deco“[An RCT] almost died in—of all places—ethics review: . by BCIf Giv...

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