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Marginal Revolution

Marginal Revolution

Newsletter | United States | Centre-Right
marginalrevolution.com/

Economics blog by Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok covering economics, culture, and ideas.

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Articles

Discussions from Marginal Revolution

Society

The fertility asymptote?

From a recent paper by Sebastian Galiani and Raul A. Sosa: Fertility rates have fallen below replacement in most countries, fueling predictions of demographic collapse. We show these forecasts overlook a crucial fact: societies are not homogeneous. Using the Bisin–Verdier model of cultural transmission with endogenous fertility and direct socialization, calibrated to U.S. and global […] The post The fertility asymptote? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to k m. So you ar...

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Economy

“You see tech and AI everywhere but in the productivity statistics”

How many times have I heard versions of that claim? Erik Brynjolfsson picks up the telephone in the FT: While initial reports suggested a year of steady labour expansion in the US, the new figures reveal that total payroll growth was revised downward by approximately 403,000 jobs. Crucially, this downward revision occurred while real GDP […] The post “You see tech and AI everywhere but in the productivity statistics” appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Comments“Yes, recent increased produc...

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Technology

Rebuilding our world, with reference to strong AI

When 2012 passed into 2013, we did not have to rebuild our world, not in most countries at least. It sufficed to make adjustments at the margin. After the Roman Empire fell, parts of Europe had to rebuild their worlds. It took a long time, but they ended up doing pretty well. After the American […] The post Rebuilding our world, with reference to strong AI appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesNatural and Artificial IceOptimal timing for superintelligenceMalthus had real influ...

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Economy

*The Almighty Dollar*

The author is Brendan Greeley, and the subtitle is 500 Years of the World’s Most Powerful Money. A very well-timed book, excellent on the history of the dollar as it spans the centuries, I was happy to write a blurb for it. The post The Almighty Dollar appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesMy Conversation with Andrew Ross SorkinWhat should I ask Paul Gillingham?What should I ask Joel Mokyr?

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Economy

Past Automation and Future A.I.: How Weak Links Tame the Growth Explosion

From Charles I. Jones and Christopher Tonetti: How muchof past economic growth is due to automation, and what does this imply about the effects of A.I. and automation in the coming decades? We perform growth accounting using a task-based model for key sectors in the U.S. economy. Historically, TFP growth is largely due to improvements […] The post Past Automation and Future A.I.: How Weak Links Tame the Growth Explosion appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsAbortController, [string]:...

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Technology

For a long time I have been predicting the return of phrenology

Yup: Human capital—encompassing cognitive skills and personality traits—is central for labor-market success, yet personality remains difficult to measure at scale. Leveraging advances in AI and comprehensive LinkedIn microdata, we extract the Big 5 personality traits from facial images of 96,000 MBA graduates, and demonstrate that this novel “Photo Big 5” predicts school rank, job matching, […] The post For a long time I have been predicting the return of phrenology appeared first on Marginal...

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Business

This security will be pricing *something* (but what?)

Alphabet has lined up banks to sell a rare 100-year bond, stepping up a borrowing spree by Big Tech companies racing to fund their vast investments in artificial intelligence this year. The so-called century bond will form part of a debut sterling issuance this week by Google’s parent company, according to people familiar with the […] The post This security will be pricing something (but what?) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to mento. Except the bonds are being issu...

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Economy

Poverty reduction is slowing down

The basic reason why I’m not very optimistic about Africa’s growth prospects under current conditions is that the track record is extremely poor, and there’s little reason to think that anything fundamental has changed. Between 1992 and 2022, median income in China grew at an average annualized rate of 6.6 percent per year; in India […] The post Poverty reduction is slowing down appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesThis security will be pricing something (but what?)For a lo...

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Politics

Bryan Caplan on immigration backlash

Bryan writes: Tyler tries to cure my immigration backlash confusion, but not to my satisfaction. The overarching flaw: He equivocates between two different versions of “backlash to immigration.” Version 1: Letting in more immigrants leads to more resistance to immigration. Version 2: Letting in more immigrants leads to so much resistance to immigration that the total stock of […] The post Bryan Caplan on immigration backlash appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsWell said Tyler. Exce...

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Culture

Why is Singapore no longer “cool”?

To be clear, I am not blaming Singapore on this one. But it is striking to me how much Americans do not talk about Singapore any more. They are much, much more likely to talk about Europe or England, for instance. I see several reasons for this: 1. Much of the Singapore fascination came from […] The post Why is Singapore no longer “cool”? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesBryan Caplan on immigration backlashThe polity that is Bolivia?Trump’s Pharmaceutical Plan

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Economy

Sebastian Galiani on the Marginal Revolution

The most successful economics blog in the world is called Marginal Revolution. That is not an accident…. Consider a few common mistakes that reappear whenever marginal thinking is abandoned: Treating the owner’s biography—wealth, identity, status—as if it entered the firm’s marginal conditions. It does not. Confusing redistribution with allocation. Redistribution is a legitimate political choice, but […] The post Sebastian Galiani on the Marginal Revolution appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTI...

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Society

A new hypothesis (from my email)

From Anonymous: Hello Professor Cowen, I hope all is well with you and that you have navigated the recent weather alright. I have a thought that I wanted to run by you that related to phones and teen anxiety. You have cited a variety of studies that say that phones and social media do not cause anxiety. […] The post A new hypothesis (from my email) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsThis artificial debate about the effects of social media on . by 3 seconds on a catapultI would say...

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