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Marginal Revolution

Marginal Revolution

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Economics blog by Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok covering economics, culture, and ideas.

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Discussions from Marginal Revolution

Economy

The economic rise of Latin America?

When the world goes looking for shelter during an oil war, the destinations are predictable: the dollar, gold, short-term Treasuries. Nobody puts Latin American sovereign bonds on that list. Yet as the dollar surged in March, the region’s average sovereign spread didn’t move. There was no contagion. The reason is structural, not lucky: as net […] The post The economic rise of Latin America? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsGlad to hear most of this. You got floating rates and do...

Global
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Technology

Will AI end anonymity?

Like many journalists, I have a bunch of unpublished fiction lying about, so I tried Claude on the first chapter of a romance novel that I started almost 20 years ago, during the hysterical, mawkish phase of a particularly bad breakup. “Megan McArdle,” said Opus 4.7, after a few seconds of thought. Fascinated, I kept […] The post Will AI end anonymity? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to RAD. It's about the truth, and AI cannot tell the . by raywardIn reply to RAD. Not ...

United States
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Business

Mushroom facts of the day

You would be surprised to learn that almost 69% of the US mushroom production occurs in the borough of Kennett Square, Pennsylvania. It is a small town of about 6000 people, but mushroom-growing facilities around town produce almost 451 million pounds of mushrooms annually (2024). 451 million pounds of mushrooms would occupy about 45 American football fields or 35 […] The post Mushroom facts of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsMuch of the piece is about why mushroom prod...

United States
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Healthcare

On health care price transparency (from the comments)

From MR commentator Sure: Generally such figures do not reside within the physicians’ office. On our side of the table we do some procedure with multiple specifications and generate some CPT code(s) (e.g. a lap cholycystectomy is 47562, add on a common bile duct exploration and it becomes a 47564, and if you just do […] The post On health care price transparency (from the comments) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesGenerative AI and EntrepreneurshipThe Pernicious Trade Acc...

United States
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Economy

The Pernicious Trade Account

The trade accounts are among the most pernicious statistics ever collected. It’s long been remarked, for example, that merely by calling something a “deficit” it seems bad even though a current account deficit is matched by a financial account surplus. Put that issue aside, however, because the real problems are much deeper. The international accounts […] The post The Pernicious Trade Account appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesOn the impact of Trump’s tariffsGrowth is getti...

United States
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Economy

Will AI save the U.S. fiscal situation?

A tenth of a percentage point of extra productivity growth — well within the range of plausible near-term AI effects — raises the fundamental value of U.S. government debt by $1.3 trillion. If markets fully priced this in, nominal Treasury yields would fall by about 70 basis points. Half a percentage point of extra growth […] The post Will AI save the U.S. fiscal situation? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsManna from heaven. by Dismalist

United States
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Economy

Growth is getting harder to find, not ideas

Relatively flat US output growth versus rising numbers of US researchers is often interpreted as evidence that ideas are getting harder to find. We build a new 45-year panel tracking the universe of US firms’ patenting to investigate the micro underpinnings of this claim, separately examining the relationships between research inputs and ideas (patents) versus […] The post Growth is getting harder to find, not ideas appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsI don't think it should surpri...

United States
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Education

Thomas Gresham is underrated

While northern professions in 1600 did not require lengthy training in mathematics or science, there was popular interest in these topics. England’s first chair in mathematics was endowed by Thomas Gresham,61 who had founded London’s Royal Exchange and pledged the rents from that institution to fund seven professorships, who would not train student but would […] The post Thomas Gresham is underrated appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to Wayfaring Stranger. I have no objec...

United Kingdom
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Technology

The exposed counties (from my email)

Professor Cowen, Built a county-level AI displacement model across all 3,204 US counties. Top 5 most exposed counties are all in the DC metro, not the Rust Belt. https://yourjobrisk.com https://jakeprokopets.substack.com/p/why-the-most-ai-exposed-counties 18, built it in three days. Jake Prokopets The post The exposed counties (from my email) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to Bob. I have literally taught a course on how . by Scott MauldinDid I mention I am 18? by A Gu...

United States
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Economy

Those old factory sector jobs

As AI sweeps into white-collar workplaces, old-timey hands-on jobs are getting a new look—and some of those professions even have shortages. Consider tailors. Sewing is a vanishing skill, much like lacemaking and watchmaking, putting tailors in short supply when big retailers like Nordstrom and Men’s Wearhouse, as well as fashion designers and local dry cleaners, […] The post Those old factory sector jobs appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Related StoriesThe Luddites Were the First to Att...

United States
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Economy

The Average is Over generation?

The result is that even though today’s young adults, and graduates in particular, are over-represented in the top quartile of the earnings distribution, they are also far more likely to be at the bottom than the top for earnings relative to reasonable expectations. In both the UK and US, even though only 10 percent of […] The post The Average is Over generation? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. Comments“Reasonable” is doing a lot of work here. by SethLots of head wind for young adults, ...

United States
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Economy

Technological unemployment in Victorian Britain

We do not know whether technological unemployment swept across England in the wake of the British Industrial Revolution. In this paper, I propose an approach to quantify jobs lost to, and created by, creative destruction in the 19th century. Using over 170 million individual records from the full-count British census (1851–1911), I generate sub-industry “task” […] The post Technological unemployment in Victorian Britain appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION. CommentsIn reply to Steve Sailer. ...

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